Labour surges in the polls

The BBC poll of polls shows the trends clearly

Contrary to virtually all “expert” expectations and predictions support for Labour is surging in the opinion polls. The confident predictions of a catastrophe for Labour have turned out not to be worth the paper they were printed on. Polling specialists, leading politicians from the so-called centre through to the right of politics went into the election sure that Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership would turn into a complete disaster for Labour.

But things are not turning out that way.

The thing is that the exposure of Labour and Tory policies to the general public along with the media exposure of the Labour and Tory leaders has push support away from the Tories towards Labour.

Even the collapse of support for UKIP which clearly benefited the Tories has not been enough to stop the general trend of a shift in support towards Labour.

In such an electorally volatile situation it is impossible to predict the final outcome but it is increasingly it seems that the Tory gambit of calling for an increased mandate for their Brexit negotiating position is going to fail. If they do not get a significantly increased majority then the election, from that point of view will have turned out to be a waste of time.

What is worse for the Tories is that if their majority is reduced, and according to YouGov it could even disappear altogether, then the election ploy will be shown to be a complete failure and Theresa May’s position will thereby have been considerably weakened.

On the Labour side there were always those on the right who were torn between their desire to see a Labour government and the aim of removing Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. They were confident that his left-leaning policies would be a disaster and that Labour could only improve its electoral position by hugging the political centre. If there is no electoral disaster for Labour, and even more if Labour improves its position then those on the anti-Corbyn right of the party will clearly have to go back to their drawing boards. Maybe some of them could even start to think that there is something seriously wrong in their understanding of electoral politics.

We don’t know what the final outcome will be but it is clear that there is every reason to think that it is possible for Ruth Cadbury to hold the Brentford and Isleworth seat for Labour. Reports indicate a substantial swing to Labour in the capital. Let’s make the most of that. If you haven’t already helped with the election campaign then make sure that you do so in the final days before the election. There is lots to be done.


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